The CAFE Programme estimated health effects to support clean air policies

In May 2001, the European Commission launched the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme – a knowledge based approach with technical/scientific analyses and policy development that will be proposing the adoption of a Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, fulfilling the requirements of the Sixth Environmental Action Programme. Its aim is to develop a longterm, strategic and integrated policy advice for ‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; including ‘no exceedance of critical loads and levels for acidification or eutrophication’.

The report CAFÉ: CBA: Baseline Analysis 2000 to 2020 presents a benefits analysis for the CAFE baseline and the Thematic Strategy. It assesses the state of the environment in 2000 and 2020, and looks at the benefits of current policies over this period.

The largest sources of PM10 emission include industry, agriculture, transport and domestic sources

For the year 2000, CAFE has estimated that about one third of the primary PM10 emissions (637 kt) in the EU-15 originated from industrial processes and other non-combustion sources (e.g., in agriculture). The transport sector contributes another 521 kt (including non-exhaust emissions), while combustion in the domestic/households sector (mainly fuel wood use in small stoves) is calculated to emit 360 kt. Primary PM10 emissions from stationary combustion of fossil fuels are expected to significantly decline in the coming years. Emissions from mobile sources (including non-exhaust emissions) show a declining, but less steep trend compared to the stationary sources. Overall, it is estimated that PM10 emissions decrease in the scenario with climate measures from 2000 to 2010 by approximately 24 percent in the EU15 and by more than 40 percent in the New Member States. For 2020, total primary PM10 emissions would be 34 percent lower in the EU-15 and 55 percent in the New Member States.

Under current policies, a reduction of health effects caused by air pollution is expected

In the table below, a presentation of estimated total health impacts across the EU25 for the years 2000 and the CAFE Baseline for 2020 is included, as is an outline of the differences between the 2020 and 2000 baselines, i.e. the benefits of current policies.

The health impacts are split into mortality (expressed as premature deaths or life years lost) and morbidity (expressed as a range of health outcomes mainly related to specific diseases). The quantification of health impacts addresses the impacts related to both long-term (chronic) and short-term (acute) exposures.

The results show the number of events that happen in each year (i.e. the annual number of impacts or new cases of premature death and illness), or the change in the number of impacts and cases over time. As outlined in the previous section (consequences for the individual and society), two alternative approaches are used for chronic mortality, to derive years of life lost and premature deaths. These two estimates should not be added.

CBA: Baseline Analysis 2000 to 2020.

LRS = Lower Respiratory Symptoms.