Absolute risk of cardiovascular disease over 5 years in patients by systolic blood pressure at specified level of other risk factors (source: Jackson et al., 2005)

The above figure, Figure 4. Absolute risk of cardiovascular disease over 5 years in patients by systolic blood pressure at specified levels of other risk factors is reproduced from Rod Jackson, Carlene MM Lawes, Derrick A Bennett, Richard J Milne and Anthony Rodgers, Treatment with drugs to lower blood pressure and blood cholesterol based on an individual's absolute cardiovascular risk. Lancet 2005, 365: 434-41 with permission from Elsevier (see Jackson et al., 2005).

Remarks

Data presented in the graph were derived from Anderson et al., 1991.

Data originate from the Framingham Heart Study. Data are based on 5573 participants of the Framingham Heart Study and the Framingham Offspring Study aged 30 to 74 years.

Baseline characteristics were measured from 1968 to 1975 and 12 years of follow-up were included in the analyses. Only participants without a history of cardiovascular disease and cancer were included.

The risk of cardiovascular disease according to risk factor status as presented in the graph was estimated with statistical modelling. The reference category is a non-diabetic, non-smoker female aged 50 years with a total cholesterol level of 4.0mmol/L and HDL of 1.6mmol/L. Risks are given for systolic blood pressure levels of 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170 and 180 mmHg. In other categories additional risk factors are added consecutively, for example, the diabetes category is a diabetic 50-year old male cigarette smoker with a total cholesterol of 7 mmol/L and HDL of 1mmol/L. TC= total cholesterol.

Results of this study are not directly transferable to European populations because the Framingham Study has been shown to overestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease in particular European populations (see for example: Hense et al., 2003).