The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of elderly persons at an age when they are generally economically inactive divided by the number of persons of working age. In the first variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 65 and over divided by the number of persons aged 15 to 64. In the second variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 60 and over divided by the number of persons aged 20 to 59.
The table above shows the old-age dependency ratio projections (forecasts) for 2010 and thereafter. For 1995, 2000 and 2005 estimates of old-age-dependency ratio are based either on the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
| The old-age-dependency ratio projections are based on the baseline variant of the Eurostat population evolution scenario. The current Trend scenario does not take into account any future developments that could influence demographic trends. It should be noted that the assumptions adopted by Eurostat may differ from those adopted by national statistical institutes and therefore the results published by Eurostat can be different from those published by Member States.
Also see:
Eurostat Metadata Regional population projections 2004-based (europop2004): Summary Methodology
Eurostat Statistics in focus: Long-term population projections at national level
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Literature and data sources
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