COPD mortality is expected to rise

The Global Burden of Disease Study estimates that by the year 2020, COPD will move from the sixth to the third-leading cause of death worldwide.

COPD mortality rates vary from less than 25 to more than 75 per 100,000 inhabitants in various European countries (European Lung White Book, 2003). This is reflected as considerable differences in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases among EU countries (see Mortality due to chronic lower respiratory diseases, Mortality from COPD in the EU-27).

Male mortality rates are three times higher than those for women in EU countries (European Lung White Book, 2003). The risk factors involved in the aetiology of COPD may explain gender differences. COPD is mainly associated with smoking, which is still more common among men, but also with work-related risks (mining, steel making or farming).

Variability in coding practices between countries (Cooreman et al., 1990,97) and between succeeding ICD-versions (Fuhrman et al., 2006) introduced some uncertainty in assessing the reliability of the COPD mortality data.

Trends in COPD mortality

COPD mortality rates are relatively insensitive to intermittent or short-term smoking cessation.

An increase in COPD mortality in Europe is likely, due to the increase in rates of smoking among women, and to the ageing of European population (European Lung White Book, 2003).

The assessment of COPD mortality trends is likewise very much affected by changes in coding and diagnostic practices over time.