This indicator gives forecasts (projections) for the total number of inhabitants by sex for every fifth year from 2010 onwards. Forecasts for the old-age dependency ratio are also presented.
Male population projections (absolute numbers), baseline variant in Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the EU-27, 1995-2050 (source: Eurostat, 2007)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
2050
Austria
3,831,200
3,868,331
3,986,296
4,019,143
4,076,533
4,122,988
4,154,098
4,164,402
4,151,851
4,083,806
4,028,838
Belgium
4,954,671
5,006,014
5,111,325
5,172,848
5,236,840
5,299,663
5,357,029
5,399,598
5,418,961
5,386,120
5,349,432
Bulgaria
4,129,966
3,991,161
3,767,610
3,605,288
3,454,658
3,296,570
3,141,517
3,005,500
2,882,222
2,634,039
2,501,976
Cyprus
319,967
339,655
369,198
384,734
406,019
424,204
439,325
451,273
460,008
473,574
480,255
Czech Republic
5,020,464
5,001,062
4,980,913
4,937,076
4,889,107
4,840,337
4,798,197
4,740,679
4,658,878
4,463,122
4,359,234
Denmark
2,573,324
2,634,122
2,677,292
2,713,623
2,735,700
2,753,844
2,771,908
2,783,917
2,783,398
2,746,665
2,721,478
Estonia
671,264
632,709
620,600
604,525
587,667
573,683
564,141
555,619
547,726
535,606
529,028
Finland
2,481,649
2,523,026
2,562,077
2,598,667
2,633,716
2,663,101
2,681,918
2,684,460
2,669,418
2,613,503
2,586,812
France
28,841,197
29,387,740
30,371,081
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany
39,644,965
40,090,776
40,353,627
40,672,946
40,773,307
40,719,685
40,438,651
39,952,445
39,319,718
37,682,329
36,663,787
Greece
5,243,193
5,399,914
5,486,632
5,570,850
5,630,054
5,650,841
5,637,093
5,599,796
5,545,218
5,377,151
5,259,464
Hungary
4,941,620
4,865,194
4,793,115
4,732,025
4,664,130
4,602,910
4,562,022
4,523,549
4,477,974
4,368,264
4,306,329
Iceland
133,891
139,665
147,170
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ireland
1,787,212
1,876,974
2,047,093
2,152,475
2,269,746
2,370,208
2,451,801
2,521,244
2,584,628
2,688,269
2,719,008
Italy
27,568,963
27,562,988
28,376,804
28,496,049
28,542,558
28,429,428
28,205,466
27,906,406
27,537,035
26,494,595
25,767,432
Latvia
1,154,321
1,096,888
1,062,918
1,031,386
1,002,297
977,269
957,486
938,034
919,693
892,690
878,946
Lithuania
1,717,208
1,644,301
1,598,155
1,555,623
1,510,767
1,474,719
1,454,347
1,437,308
1,417,761
1,375,607
1,351,914
Luxembourg
199,163
213,615
224,740
236,185
246,984
258,153
269,714
281,080
291,558
309,561
317,772
Malta
182,838
188,589
199,580
210,254
218,388
225,773
232,431
237,730
241,756
248,148
251,461
Netherlands
7,627,482
7,846,317
8,065,979
8,260,902
8,408,038
8,536,372
8,645,112
8,722,550
8,757,399
8,705,886
8,652,458
Norway
2,150,257
2,217,140
2,284,070
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Poland
18,778,040
18,783,424
18,470,253
18,283,982
18,071,914
17,895,385
17,797,490
17,664,128
17,438,445
16,762,835
16,371,169
Portugal
4,826,853
4,918,242
5,094,339
5,170,108
5,208,908
5,215,944
5,198,674
5,166,132
5,119,220
4,968,949
4,858,160
Romania
10,891,403
10,711,943
10,561,710
10,388,620
10,178,069
9,902,864
9,618,888
9,382,972
9,170,321
8,690,401
8,392,884
Slovakia
2,608,901
2,625,126
2,613,490
2,590,431
2,569,372
2,549,268
2,531,311
2,505,189
2,466,203
2,356,816
2,292,161
Slovenia
964,375
970,812
977,052
992,407
998,168
1,000,451
1,000,248
994,522
983,653
951,694
933,116
Spain
19,268,561
19,606,767
21,173,289
21,915,911
22,228,949
22,355,480
22,327,403
22,201,089
22,008,230
21,316,551
20,735,371
Sweden
4,356,254
4,380,118
4,466,311
4,568,703
4,673,020
4,783,293
4,885,182
4,958,658
5,003,844
5,081,268
5,123,918
Switzerland
3,428,368
3,500,708
3,628,696
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
United Kingdom
28,156,016
28,634,462
29,395,000
29,922,808
30,499,384
31,047,087
31,510,944
31,834,118
32,001,495
32,061,270
31,959,107
EU-15
-
-
-
191,375,826
193,632,532
195,163,452
195,914,166
195,917,823
195,212,248
191,662,643
188,825,749
EU-25
216,956,560
220,097,166
225,077,159
226,698,269
228,550,361
229,727,451
230,251,164
229,965,854
228,824,345
224,090,999
220,579,362
- : no data available
Remarks
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The table above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and therafter.
For 1995, 2000 and 2005 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
Female population projections (absolute numbers), baseline variant, in Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the EU-27, 1995-2050 (source: Eurostat, 2007)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
2050
Austria
4,112,289
4,133,855
4,220,228
4,236,667
4,281,008
4,318,105
4,346,528
4,355,491
4,339,057
4,256,051
4,187,117
Belgium
5,175,903
5,233,071
5,334,527
5,381,196
5,436,690
5,490,358
5,541,410
5,584,587
5,612,499
5,596,001
5,556,356
Bulgaria
4,297,452
4,199,715
3,993,439
3,833,500
3,675,624
3,499,482
3,323,592
3,169,067
3,026,214
2,738,810
2,592,087
Cyprus
325,432
350,842
379,977
398,893
421,774
441,389
457,533
470,182
479,070
490,415
494,816
Czech Republic
5,312,697
5,277,036
5,239,664
5,185,066
5,122,908
5,061,511
5,013,480
4,952,231
4,864,202
4,645,912
4,534,277
Denmark
2,642,394
2,695,898
2,734,113
2,751,763
2,762,274
2,772,189
2,784,725
2,793,343
2,789,134
2,739,437
2,708,512
Estonia
776,811
739,362
726,910
709,524
691,259
674,089
659,933
646,856
633,899
609,803
596,742
Finland
2,617,105
2,648,276
2,674,534
2,695,698
2,719,783
2,741,634
2,756,894
2,758,964
2,742,997
2,669,536
2,630,217
France
30,473,942
31,125,647
32,147,490
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany
41,893,638
42,072,699
42,147,222
42,150,749
42,090,919
41,956,775
41,668,977
41,193,782
40,565,551
39,014,278
37,978,621
Greece
5,351,881
5,503,843
5,596,119
5,697,867
5,759,950
5,776,202
5,756,442
5,716,611
5,662,928
5,495,222
5,372,310
Hungary
5,395,080
5,356,450
5,304,434
5,249,897
5,170,120
5,090,372
5,026,352
4,960,865
4,884,257
4,704,049
4,608,540
Iceland
133,087
139,384
146,407
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ireland
1,810,405
1,900,789
2,062,080
2,170,178
2,285,148
2,385,903
2,470,520
2,544,595
2,612,890
2,724,523
2,758,855
Italy
29,275,445
29,360,536
30,085,571
30,135,095
30,087,672
29,870,244
29,545,492
29,165,083
28,739,378
27,663,067
26,941,779
Latvia
1,346,259
1,284,827
1,243,516
1,208,256
1,171,933
1,138,157
1,110,580
1,084,317
1,058,925
1,016,376
993,909
Lithuania
1,925,783
1,867,773
1,827,169
1,789,740
1,746,883
1,707,496
1,679,307
1,654,616
1,627,065
1,565,825
1,529,211
Luxembourg
206,487
219,985
230,260
241,194
251,705
262,703
274,295
285,921
296,979
316,246
324,804
Malta
186,613
191,612
203,088
212,346
220,493
228,247
235,378
241,380
246,156
253,215
256,807
Netherlands
7,796,640
8,017,633
8,239,547
8,411,242
8,549,131
8,673,099
8,783,672
8,866,044
8,904,398
8,830,886
8,753,326
Norway
2,198,153
2,261,357
2,322,293
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Poland
19,802,557
19,870,135
19,703,582
19,546,387
19,356,573
19,169,867
19,038,790
18,877,506
18,614,254
17,784,572
17,293,871
Portugal
5,190,718
5,276,772
5,434,916
5,516,389
5,553,049
5,554,817
5,531,077
5,493,649
5,440,933
5,274,742
5,150,882
Romania
11,302,858
11,195,864
11,096,818
10,956,678
10,738,633
10,439,295
10,127,221
9,861,221
9,616,744
9,064,980
8,732,129
Slovakia
2,747,306
2,773,531
2,771,332
2,756,397
2,739,623
2,721,366
2,705,239
2,680,571
2,640,520
2,518,948
2,445,397
Slovenia
1,025,102
1,016,943
1,020,538
1,022,395
1,020,640
1,016,239
1,013,932
1,011,475
1,005,704
983,689
967,733
Spain
20,074,539
20,442,941
21,864,746
22,687,351
23,035,230
23,203,133
23,228,121
23,178,328
23,086,864
22,601,777
22,098,384
Sweden
4,460,127
4,481,308
4,545,081
4,618,787
4,699,906
4,792,189
4,883,384
4,952,526
4,993,501
5,046,477
5,077,621
Switzerland
3,590,651
3,663,736
3,786,406
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
United Kingdom
29,787,456
30,150,784
30,664,900
31,000,744
31,434,564
31,882,778
32,281,208
32,554,075
32,657,578
32,575,506
32,370,834
EU-15
-
-
-
199,276,418
201,093,926
202,294,056
202,865,577
202,819,558
202,128,967
198,606,302
195,530,494
EU-25
228,913,146
231,992,548
236,401,544
237,355,319
238,756,132
239,542,789
239,806,101
239,399,557
238,183,019
233,179,106
229,251,797
- : no data available
Remarks
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The table above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and therafter.
For 1995, 2000 and 2005 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
Population projections (absolute numbers), baseline variant for men 80 years and over in Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the EU-27, 1995-2050 (source: Eurostat, 2007)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
2050
Austria
87,451
74,854
98,210
123,216
142,448
167,573
212,229
238,422
261,904
376,636
427,811
Belgium
115,047
106,282
145,050
175,677
205,179
224,539
238,543
295,967
350,412
453,137
473,337
Bulgaria
85,182
67,577
89,572
104,168
116,100
116,783
123,714
151,263
174,744
202,595
213,548
Cyprus
7,076
7,489
8,035
9,204
10,905
13,914
17,334
21,465
25,027
31,071
32,025
Czech Republic
84,923
70,389
93,385
112,600
125,185
132,784
173,183
238,110
284,787
302,425
318,236
Denmark
67,347
68,871
74,535
78,200
82,988
95,262
121,068
151,434
162,002
186,456
201,371
Estonia
9,611
8,326
9,475
12,586
14,583
16,544
16,715
18,611
21,785
27,869
29,027
Finland
44,416
46,365
57,973
73,674
86,699
102,560
120,497
169,939
197,508
215,638
216,326
France
760,177
673,229
921,730
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany
903,114
770,921
986,574
1,326,132
1,647,049
2,206,748
2,521,951
2,530,327
2,819,662
3,853,672
4,219,015
Greece
134,662
137,584
159,057
209,066
260,156
281,017
277,786
309,686
348,184
428,175
479,926
Hungary
94,580
79,321
102,593
118,316
131,967
141,610
167,787
200,200
251,141
273,951
292,524
Iceland
2,673
2,865
3,529
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ireland
31,152
32,600
38,511
42,974
50,442
59,907
74,406
97,096
118,142
160,941
184,810
Italy
771,312
731,207
958,597
1,167,938
1,359,041
1,542,164
1,652,899
1,871,059
2,027,348
2,608,242
2,976,122
Latvia
17,593
14,041
15,307
20,839
25,091
29,886
31,742
32,945
36,777
50,410
53,253
Lithuania
28,227
22,511
24,795
33,566
38,964
42,732
45,003
47,874
55,021
82,280
89,184
Luxembourg
4,034
3,812
4,153
5,970
7,352
8,280
9,309
11,352
13,655
19,380
21,701
Malta
2,933
3,193
4,278
4,924
5,745
7,087
8,594
12,563
14,952
17,214
16,558
Netherlands
143,655
151,354
182,197
203,142
228,003
257,620
305,498
396,436
441,743
534,046
568,209
Norway
57,758
63,057
72,488
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Poland
250,930
224,016
282,051
374,956
457,733
508,434
526,657
701,538
966,438
1,203,615
1,173,680
Portugal
102,213
114,589
143,050
165,089
193,670
217,793
234,838
268,900
306,254
388,085
420,110
Romania
177,470
136,753
182,194
233,928
264,824
290,083
286,529
324,580
408,484
485,886
591,519
Slovakia
38,331
32,428
39,739
44,536
47,729
49,783
58,462
77,044
106,736
139,237
143,405
Slovenia
15,219
12,380
15,709
21,581
27,976
33,226
38,687
46,007
60,738
77,468
81,681
Spain
447,919
505,921
643,472
796,171
949,936
1,013,288
1,098,207
1,256,871
1,421,916
1,918,213
2,184,100
Sweden
142,383
152,653
173,913
176,685
179,460
198,525
251,083
311,240
328,280
357,146
386,571
Switzerland
88,681
91,924
110,099
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
United Kingdom
701,433
736,838
902,500
1,008,623
1,121,009
1,268,786
1,458,826
1,804,941
1,975,237
2,526,847
2,798,825
EU-15
-
-
-
6,653,382
7,784,916
9,015,784
10,045,903
11,604,939
13,037,930
16,702,028
18,359,535
EU-25
4,997,350
4,781,174
6,084,889
7,406,490
8,670,794
9,991,784
11,130,067
13,001,296
14,861,332
18,907,568
20,589,108
- : no data available
Remarks
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The table above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and therafter.
For 1995, 2000 and 2005 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
Population projections (absolute numbers), baseline variant for women 80 years and over in Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the EU-27, 1995-2050 (source: Eurostat, 2007)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
2050
Austria
220,986
197,257
249,230
272,315
278,052
293,577
349,625
383,594
414,039
548,791
610,735
Belgium
271,211
250,216
302,602
349,567
393,608
417,758
428,458
495,938
569,248
721,347
754,796
Bulgaria
129,680
106,613
152,919
178,958
201,940
206,071
216,842
256,786
285,038
297,889
297,340
Cyprus
9,561
10,390
11,521
13,349
15,611
18,842
22,848
28,477
33,926
45,775
48,203
Czech Republic
200,173
166,826
214,947
246,045
259,531
259,811
309,125
396,149
456,683
451,391
454,751
Denmark
137,572
139,966
146,336
144,201
144,033
153,020
179,652
215,284
230,052
253,212
268,443
Estonia
31,181
27,803
32,631
38,627
41,739
45,684
45,049
47,852
53,118
61,365
60,640
Finland
117,341
124,690
145,345
161,942
172,450
187,494
205,789
267,422
305,955
324,973
320,594
France
1,674,336
1,496,179
1,871,392
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany
2,429,843
2,163,909
2,570,408
2,853,508
3,035,947
3,624,659
3,988,628
3,956,109
4,280,762
5,494,432
5,943,840
Greece
193,767
200,394
217,275
288,697
364,523
404,988
402,734
437,710
477,640
572,616
626,404
Hungary
207,680
180,773
235,296
271,091
295,090
311,765
346,052
386,312
456,277
460,856
461,486
Iceland
4,305
4,606
5,478
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ireland
57,170
62,062
71,871
78,395
85,061
95,212
111,722
140,489
169,212
229,137
257,704
Italy
1,506,257
1,499,968
1,939,607
2,245,342
2,517,717
2,747,292
2,874,057
3,130,965
3,322,842
4,023,098
4,478,679
Latvia
53,928
46,049
54,981
66,701
72,105
79,198
80,654
80,562
85,162
102,595
102,649
Lithuania
68,203
59,304
70,925
93,796
106,562
114,969
118,211
120,754
129,595
169,610
176,272
Luxembourg
9,588
9,549
10,467
12,428
13,815
14,728
15,635
17,639
20,588
28,520
32,088
Malta
4,840
5,513
7,213
8,504
10,090
11,688
13,120
17,656
20,335
22,764
21,736
Netherlands
332,102
348,985
391,376
410,949
430,592
453,715
503,975
623,328
696,998
826,960
873,074
Norway
115,722
126,965
140,667
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Poland
580,469
521,877
684,136
853,849
984,343
1,051,115
1,044,272
1,275,384
1,650,251
1,917,216
1,799,805
Portugal
197,414
215,663
257,958
300,106
346,877
384,382
408,906
455,696
504,180
609,092
646,648
Romania
302,921
254,282
334,808
415,966
467,402
516,816
507,494
552,228
664,661
733,291
841,907
Slovakia
77,475
67,300
87,668
101,180
109,637
113,792
127,011
153,597
196,089
235,315
234,138
Slovenia
36,747
32,541
44,750
55,849
65,339
69,558
74,005
79,765
95,158
115,030
118,891
Spain
871,219
996,492
1,201,206
1,422,761
1,643,029
1,732,407
1,826,216
2,035,014
2,264,026
2,958,226
3,316,908
Sweden
265,749
283,829
308,424
306,073
300,851
311,241
363,148
437,818
465,105
491,666
521,739
Switzerland
189,849
191,561
218,049
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
United Kingdom
1,594,211
1,582,227
1,733,200
1,785,332
1,849,340
1,971,553
2,173,072
2,591,326
2,797,574
3,458,827
3,778,177
EU-15
-
-
-
12,782,324
14,001,006
15,334,018
16,434,655
18,319,160
20,218,018
25,013,410
27,072,395
EU-25
11,132,492
10,689,762
12,860,765
14,531,315
15,961,053
17,410,440
18,615,002
20,905,668
23,394,612
28,595,327
30,550,966
- : no data available
Remarks
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The table above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and therafter.
For 1995, 2000 and 2005 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The figure above shows the projected population (baseline variant) on 1 January of each year for 2010 and thereafter.
For the period 1950-2006 the population size on 1 January of the year in question is given. The population size is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices. Also see: Trend in total population, 1950-2006
Old-age-dependency ratio projections (1st variant) in Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the EU-27, 1995-2050 (source: Eurostat, 2007)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Austria
22.5
22.9
23.5
26.3
28.1
30.3
34.5
40.8
47.1
50.4
51.5
53.2
Belgium
23.8
25.5
26.3
26.4
29.1
32.2
36.5
41.3
45.1
47.2
47.8
48.1
Bulgaria
22.2
23.8
24.8
25.6
29.0
33.0
36.9
40.4
43.7
48.8
55.4
60.9
Cyprus
17.2
17.0
17.3
19.1
22.1
25.5
29.3
32.9
34.7
36.1
38.2
43.2
Czech Republic
19.3
19.8
19.8
21.9
26.8
31.8
35.0
37.1
39.0
43.8
51.2
54.8
Denmark
22.7
22.2
22.7
24.8
28.7
31.2
33.8
37.1
40.4
42.1
42.0
40.0
Estonia
20.2
22.4
24.3
24.7
26.3
28.7
31.3
33.4
34.5
36.6
39.1
43.1
Finland
21.1
22.2
23.8
25.4
31.6
37.0
41.4
45.0
47.0
46.1
46.1
46.7
France
22.7
24.3
24.9
25.9
29.5
33.2
36.9
40.7
44.1
46.9
47.2
47.9
Germany
22.5
23.9
27.8
31.0
32.0
35.1
39.3
46.0
52.6
54.6
54.9
55.8
Greece
22.2
24.2
26.8
28.0
30.3
32.5
35.5
39.1
44.3
49.8
55.2
58.8
Hungary
20.9
22.0
22.7
24.3
26.7
31.2
34.5
35.1
36.9
40.3
45.9
48.3
Iceland
17.3
17.8
17.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ireland
17.8
16.8
16.4
17.5
19.9
22.5
25.2
28.3
31.6
35.9
40.9
45.3
Italy
24.0
26.8
29.3
31.3
34.3
36.6
39.7
45.2
52.4
59.8
64.6
66.0
Latvia
20.5
22.1
24.1
25.2
26.3
28.0
30.7
33.4
34.9
37.4
39.9
44.1
Lithuania
18.5
20.8
22.3
23.4
24.2
26.0
29.2
33.4
36.5
39.3
41.2
44.9
Luxembourg
20.6
21.4
21.3
21.6
22.8
24.7
27.7
31.5
35.1
36.7
36.6
36.1
Malta
16.3
17.9
19.3
20.4
25.7
30.0
33.8
36.0
35.5
35.9
38.0
40.6
Netherlands
19.3
20.0
20.8
22.2
26.0
29.0
32.5
36.7
40.3
41.6
40.2
38.6
Norway
24.8
23.5
22.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Poland
16.6
17.6
18.7
18.8
21.7
27.1
32.8
35.7
37.1
39.7
44.3
51.0
Portugal
21.9
23.7
25.2
26.5
28.8
31.5
34.7
39.0
43.4
48.9
54.7
58.1
Romania
18.0
19.7
21.1
21.2
22.1
25.1
28.5
29.6
34.4
39.6
46.1
51.1
Slovakia
16.3
16.6
16.3
16.9
19.1
23.5
28.1
31.7
34.2
38.1
44.5
50.6
Slovenia
17.4
19.8
21.8
23.6
25.9
30.8
35.8
40.4
44.5
47.7
52.1
55.6
Spain
22.2
24.5
24.4
25.4
27.7
30.0
33.6
38.9
45.9
54.3
63.2
67.5
Sweden
27.4
26.9
26.5
28.0
32.0
34.4
36.5
38.5
40.6
41.5
41.2
40.9
Switzerland
21.7
22.7
23.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
United Kingdom
24.5
24.3
24.3
25.1
28.1
30.3
33.2
37.4
41.4
43.8
44.2
45.3
EU-15
-
-
-
27.5
30.1
32.8
36.3
41.2
46.3
50.0
52.0
53.2
EU-25
22.1
23.4
24.8
26.3
28.9
32.1
35.7
40.3
44.8
48.5
51.0
52.8
EU-27
21.9
23.2
24.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- : no data available
Remarks
The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of elderly persons at an age when they are generally economically inactive divided by the number of persons of working age. In the first variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 65 and over divided by the number of persons aged 15 to 64. In the second variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 60 and over divided by the number of persons aged 20 to 59.
The table above shows the old-age dependency ratio projections (forecasts) for 2010 and thereafter. For 1995, 2000 and 2005 estimates of old-age-dependency ratio are based either on the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The old-age-dependency ratio projections are based on the baseline variant of the Eurostat population evolution scenario. The current Trend scenario does not take into account any future developments that could influence demographic trends. It should be noted that the assumptions adopted by Eurostat may differ from those adopted by national statistical institutes and therefore the results published by Eurostat can be different from those published by Member States.
The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of elderly persons at an age when they are generally economically inactive divided by the number of persons of working age. In the first variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 65 and over divided by the number of persons aged 15 to 64. In the second variant the ratio is the number of elderly persons aged 60 and over divided by the number of persons aged 20 to 59.
The figure above shows the old-age dependency ratio projections (forecasts) for 2010 and thereafter. For 1950-2006 estimates of old-age-dependency ratio are based either on the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. The data was collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Offices.
In the Trend scenario produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments making assumptions on the three components of change, namely fertility, mortality and net migration. Based on different assumptions (baseline, high and low) on these three components, seven variants were included in the Trend scenario: baseline, high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration.
The old-age-dependency ratio projections are based on the baseline variant of the Eurostat population evolution scenario. The current Trend scenario does not take into account any future developments that could influence demographic trends. It should be noted that the assumptions adopted by Eurostat may differ from those adopted by national statistical institutes and therefore the results published by Eurostat can be different from those published by Member States.
Literature and data sources
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